![]() ![]() Any fight between Turkey and Greece would immediately involve NATO, and would almost certainly result in some degree of opportunistic intervention by Russia. While it seems unlikely that a NATO ally would openly attack another NATO ally, past conflicts have brought the two countries up to the brink of war (and sometimes slightly beyond) notwithstanding their alliance commitments. ![]() ![]() Disputes between Athens and Ankara over energy exploration in the Aegean have driven the current tension, although the territorial disagreement underlying the argument have existed for decades. Over the past year tensions between Greece and Turkey have increased substantially, driven in large part by Turkey’s assertive foreign policy turn and by the domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime. Lost in all of the discussion of the revitalization of NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a simmering crisis on the alliance’s southern flank. Almost any imaginable conflict, however, would end up including the United States and very likely Japan, and would thus constitute a great power war. At the same time, these statements (and unwise stunts such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei) run the risk of triggering Chinese escalation.įortunately, there is good reason to believe that we will have some warning of war as was the case along the Ukrainian border, Chinese preparation for conflict would be glaringly visible to everyone concerned. The willingness of the Biden administration to take risky rhetorical positions on the defense of Taiwan indicates that Washington has real concern over the prospects of a Chinese attack. However, there is little doubt that cross-strait tensions remain significant. Worry about the immediacy of war between Taiwan and China has waned a bit in the past months, in large part because of China’s catastrophic covid experience. Concerns over the ability of Ukraine to continue the war in the long-term might force Kyiv to take risky steps of its own to break the stalemate. Russia’s inability to make progress may threaten the stability of the Putin government, inclining Moscow to contemplate dangerous escalation. ![]() These five areas pose the greatest risk for the eruption of what we might be tempted to call “World War III.”Ĭoncern that Russia might use nuclear weapons to restore its flagging fortunes in Ukraine seems to have declined since summer, as the war has settled into a destructive stalemate. The war has had a ripple effect on the world stage, dramatically increasing the stakes of disputes that have quietly smoldered for decades. By early spring, the United States and its allies were pursuing policies that would result in the death of Russian soldiers, the destruction of Russian military equipment, and the long-term degradation of the Russian economy. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an attack that almost immediately resulted in a combination of sanctions and direct military support for Kyiv. A 19FortyFive Tradition – We Look at Where World War III Could Start As We Prepare for 2023 – In 2022, the world came closer to Great Power War than at any point since the end of the Cold War. ![]()
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